The Indigenous tourism industry in Canada is facing a new crisis as President Trump’s tariffs come into effect today. The tariffs come at a time when the industry is still struggling to recover to pre-pandemic levels and, once again, Indigenous tourism looks to be the hardest hit and likely the last to recover.

The Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) recently released its “Impact of Trump Tariffs on the Tourism Sector” assessment. As a result of the US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory response, CBoC expects inflation to be 0.7% above the baseline by the second quarter of this year and, if the tariffs persist, 1.9% higher by the first quarter of 2027. The resulting increase in the cost of goods will make it even more expensive for tourism operators to run their businesses.

The CBoC modelled two scenarios, one in which the Trump tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are short lived, lasting for three months, and one in which they persist, lasting for two years.

Impacts of 3-month Tariff Scenario:

  • $740 million reduction in cumulative tourism-related GDP by Q4 2029
  • Job losses totalling 13,100 (versus the CBoC baseline forecast)

Impacts of 2-year Tariff Scenario:

  • $8.2 billion reduction in cumulative tourism-related GDP by Q4 2029
  • Job losses totalling 176,800 (versus the CBoC baseline forecast)

The numbers in both scenarios are for Canada’s tourism industry as a whole. Specific to Indigenous tourism though, the CBoC states that the tariffs will likely “deal a severe impact to the Indigenous-tourism sector.” Given its reliance on rural infrastructure, higher transportation costs, and limited financial resources, CBoC expects Indigenous tourism businesses will face additional challenges and may experience even greater difficulty in absorbing cost increases and sustaining operations over the long term.

With representatives in Ottawa today, the Indigenous Tourism Association of Canada (ITAC) continues to advocate for its members, many of whom have already seen cancelled contracts and reduced demand amidst the uncertainty of the looming tariffs. With the tariffs now a reality, ITAC encourages members whose businesses are being directly impacted to reach out to keep ITAC informed of any subsequent layoffs or effects on revenues. They should email ITAC President and CEO, Keith Henry, directly at Keith@IndigenousTourism.ca.

The full CBoC impact assessment report can be downloaded here: bit.ly/cboc-trump-tariffs